美国网友问：为啥美国不切断所有芯片供应灭亡中国高科技呢？

最近deepseek火爆全球，芯片相关概念股市暴跌，这让美国人很不安，有美国网友有个妄想，他提问：没有美国芯片，整个中国高科技经济将会死亡，那么为什么美国不干脆切断所有供应呢？这个问题包括，没有美国芯片，中国高科技会死亡吗？为什么美国不切断所有芯片供应？我们看看各国网友的回答。

“Chips” is the equivalent of saying “Copper wire” Or “Bakelite Switches” in the 1990s

“芯片” 就好比 20 世纪 90 年代人们所说的 “铜线” 或者 “胶木开关” 一样常见。

Across the world there are more than 57,000 different approved designs for Chips of various performances beginning with the largest 2.25 micron chips (2250 nm) & the commercially viable 3 nm process Chips.

全球有超过 57000 种不同的、经核准的芯片设计，性能各异，从最大的 2.25 微米（2250 纳米）芯片到具备商业可行性的 3 纳米制程芯片都有。

If you see, as of 2023 - China makes more Chips than the rest of the world when it comes to any Chip that is 45 nm Or larger

你看，截至 2023 年，在 45 纳米及以上制程的芯片生产方面，中国的产量超过世界其他国家的总和。

These begin with Automatic Garage Doors, Sliding Doors, Lawnmowers, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Basic Guided Missiles, Automatic Sprinklers, Electronic Display Counters, Counting Machines all the way to your Basic EV control chips

这些芯片应用广泛，从自动车库门、滑动门、割草机、冰箱、洗衣机、基础制导导弹、自动洒水器、电子显示计数器、计数机，一直到基础电动汽车控制芯片。

China is self sufficient in Chips between 28–45 nm process, These are Advanced EV Chips & Chips used in Industrial Robotics

在 28 - 45 纳米制程的芯片方面，中国实现了自给自足。这些芯片用于先进的电动汽车以及工业机器人。

The US or rather Taiwan & Korea have a near control on Chips between 3–14 nm, Your Smartphones, Advanced Robotics, Laptops, Ipads etc

美国，或者更确切地说是中国台湾地区和韩国，几乎掌控着 3 - 14 纳米制程的芯片生产。这些芯片用于智能手机、先进机器人、笔记本电脑、平板电脑等产品。

Now such Chips are used in less than 10% Applications globally albeit very important applications that make a truckload of profits

如今，这类芯片在全球的应用占比不到 10%，尽管它们应用于非常重要的领域并创造了巨额利润。

Almost 90% Applications in the world use Larger Chips that are almost exclusively made in China & use entirely indigenous Chinese processes or machinery

全球近 90% 的应用使用的是较大尺寸的芯片，这些芯片几乎完全由中国生产，并采用中国本土的工艺或设备。

Who controls the Refined Material Supply Chains needed to make 3–14 nm Chips?

那么，谁掌控着制造 3 - 14 纳米芯片所需的精炼材料供应链呢？

82% is controlled by Russia & China . This includes Inert Gas Tubes, Refined Germanium, Refined Gallium, Processed Graphite, Refined Molybdenum, Refined Cobalt, High Grade Purified Nickel Conduction Alloys

82% 由俄罗斯和中国掌控。这其中包括惰性气体管、精炼锗、精炼镓、加工石墨、精炼钼、精炼钴、高纯度镍导电合金。

And you know the best part?

你知道最有意思的是什么吗？

China can get 3–14 nm Chips easier than the US can get Refined Material Supply Chains from across the world

中国获取 3 - 14 纳米芯片，比美国从全球获取精炼材料供应链要容易。

A 20% cut in Refined Materials from China will lead to a 34% cut in Chip Production globally

中国减少 20% 的精炼材料供应，将导致全球芯片产量削减 34% 。

So imagine China cutting 20% refined materials and accelerating it's own chip production

所以，想象一下，如果中国减少 20% 的精炼材料供应，同时加快自身芯片生产。

It would be against WTO rules and so far China doesn't want to break the law

这将违反世界贸易组织（WTO）规则，到目前为止，中国并不想违法。

China is a 5000 year old Civilization, Immensely Patient people

中国是拥有 5000 年历史的文明古国。中国人民极具耐心。

For them 4 years is equivalent to a flap of a butterfly's wings

对他们来说，4 年就如同蝴蝶扇动一下翅膀般短暂。

However if they decide to break the rules and forego a few years development as a unified nation

然而，如果他们决定打破规则，牺牲国家几年的统一发展，

They can destroy every inch of development and upgrade in the Western markets for nearly 25 years

他们就能让西方市场近 25 年的发展与升级成果化为乌有。

They have plenty of cards to play

他们有很多牌可打。

From this question, your bias is quite evident. What on earth gives you the illusion that China's high - tech economic development depends on the United States? As for why the US doesn't directly cut off the chip supply to China, I think no one knows better than the US itself, because the development of the US chip industry is fundamentally inseparable from the Chinese market.

从这个问题中，明显能看出你的偏见。究竟是什么让你产生了中国高科技经济发展依赖美国的错觉？至于美国为何不直接切断对中国的芯片供应，我想没人比美国自己更清楚，因为美国芯片产业的发展根本离不开中国市场。

First of all, even without the US, China's high - tech economy will not perish. Instead, due to external pressure, it will make even greater efforts to promote the improvement of its own technological level and innovation capabilities.

首先，即便没有美国，中国的高科技经济不仅不会消亡，反而会因外部压力而更加努力推动自身技术水平提升与创新能力增强。

Since 2018, the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese high - tech enterprises such as ZTE, Huawei, and SMIC. Through a series of measures such as banning US companies from supplying components or chips to them, it has cut off most of the overseas chip supplies of these enterprises. However, several years have passed, and instead of curbing the rise of China's manufacturing industry, the US's suppression of China has actually promoted the rapid development of Chinese high - tech enterprises.

自2018年起，美国就对中兴、华为、中芯国际等中国高科技企业实施制裁，通过禁止美国公司向它们供应零部件或芯片等一系列举措，切断了这些企业大部分海外芯片供应。然而几年过去了，美国对中国的打压非但没有遏制中国制造业的崛起，反而促进了中国高科技企业的快速发展。

According to a report by Bloomberg in June this year, among the 20 fastest - growing chip enterprises globally in the past four quarters, 19 are Chinese enterprises, while only 8 were Chinese enterprises in the same period last year. At the same time, in 2021, the total sales of Chinese chip manufacturing and design enterprises jumped by 18% to a record $150 billion. The local chip manufacturing industry in China is booming, and the global demand for Chinese chips is also deepening.

据彭博社今年6月报道，在过去四个季度全球增长最快的20家芯片企业中，有19家是中国企业，而去年同期仅有8家。与此同时，2021年中国芯片制造与设计企业的总销售额跃升18%，达到创纪录的1500亿美元。中国本土芯片制造业正蓬勃发展，全球对中国芯片的需求也在不断加深。

Secondly, if the US insists on adopting a "technology hard - decoupling" policy towards China and completely bans the export of US chip products to China, it will ultimately only harm its own interests. The US is no longer the country that could account for 37% of global semiconductor manufacturing in the 1990s. By 2020, this figure had dropped to 12%.

其次，如果美国执意对中国采取 “技术硬脱钩” 政策，完全禁止美国芯片产品出口到中国，最终只会损害自身利益。美国早已不是上世纪90年代那个能占据全球半导体制造37%份额的国家了。到2020年，这一数字已降至12%。

According to data released by the White House, the US semiconductor production accounts for only about 10% of the world, while East Asia accounts for 75% of global production. The importance of the Chinese market is self - evident. If the US insists on cutting off the chip supply to China, the losses suffered by US semiconductor enterprises will be even more severe. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that the US will lose 18% of the global market share, 37% of its revenue, and reduce 15,000 to 40,000 high - skilled jobs.

根据白宫公布的数据，美国半导体产量仅占全球约10%，而东亚占全球产量的75%，中国市场的重要性不言而喻。倘若美国坚持切断对中国的芯片供应，那么美国半导体企业遭受的损失将更为惨重。波士顿咨询集团估计，美国将失去18%的全球市场份额和37%的营收，并减少1.5万至4万个高技能工作岗位。

Finally, the globalization trend of the development of the chip industry is irreversible, and the US cannot build a chip world that "excludes China" on its own. The recently enacted US Chip Act once again exposes its selfish and narrow - minded true features. Although US enterprises such as Intel and Nvidia have traditional technological advantages in chip design, in the links of chip raw material extraction, semi - finished product processing, chip production and manufacturing, countries and regions such as China and Europe also play an indispensable role.

最后，芯片产业发展的全球化趋势已不可逆转，美国无法独自构建一个 “排除中国” 的芯片世界。美国近期颁布的《芯片法案》再次暴露了其自私狭隘的真面目。英特尔、英伟达等美国企业在芯片设计方面固然拥有传统技术优势，但在芯片原材料提取、半成品加工、芯片生产制造等环节，中国、欧洲等国家和地区同样发挥着不可或缺的作用。

The chip industry has long established a cross - regional industrial chain and supply chain network globally, forming a collaborative and efficient operation model. The US Chip Act attempts to break this situation to maintain its own hegemony. On the one hand, it hopes to promote the "return" of chip manufacturing to the US mainland, and on the other hand, it attempts to use this to suppress the development of other countries.

芯片产业早已在全球建立起跨区域的产业链供应链网络，形成了协同高效的运营模式。美国的《芯片法案》妄图打破这一局面以维持自身霸权，一方面希望推动芯片制造 “回流” 美国本土，另一方面又企图借此打压其他国家的发展。

However, this act ignores the globalization characteristics of the chip industry and the decline of the US's own chip manufacturing industry. It will not only interfere with the stable operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain, but more importantly, it is not beneficial to the development of the US semiconductor industry. Forcibly fostering "Made in America" through huge industrial subsidies not only fails to solve old problems but also exacerbates risks such as high deficits and high inflation, ultimately making American families and ordinary people pay the price.

然而，该法案忽视了芯片产业的全球化特性以及美国自身芯片制造业的衰落。它不仅会干扰全球产业链供应链的稳定运行，更重要的是，对美国半导体产业的发展并无益处。通过巨额产业补贴强行扶植 “美国制造”，不仅无法解决老问题，还会加剧高赤字、高通胀等风险，最终让美国家庭和普通民众为此买单。

Facts have proved that without US chips, China will not collapse; instead, it will develop better and better. But the US is different. If it insists on excluding the Chinese market, it will surely reap what it sows. It is not difficult to achieve win - win cooperation, but the US goes against the path of "peace" time and time again. It is really hateful and pathetic!

事实证明，没有美国芯片，中国不会倒下，反而会发展得越来越好。但美国则不同，如果执意将中国市场排除在外，必将自食恶果。实现合作共赢并非难事，可美国却一次次背 “和平” 之道而行，实在可恨又可悲！

This is so uninformed.

这实在是太无知了。

How can the U.S. cut off China of “American chips” when the reality is: U.S. CANNOT PRODUCE CHIPS.

美国怎么可能切断对中国的 “美国芯片” 供应呢？现实情况是：美国根本无法独自生产芯片。

Its Taiwan and South Korea producing advanced chips. It is the Netherlands and Japan producing the machines that make advanced chips.

是中国台湾地区和韩国在生产先进芯片。是荷兰和日本在制造用于生产先进芯片的设备。

And China produces the bulk of the legacy chips that the world uses for the industrial products that all our industries use.

而中国生产了全球各行业用于工业产品的大部分传统芯片。

Pretty soon, China will be the only country in the world with a fully self - sufficient chip industry and control of its supply chain network for the first time.

很快，中国将首次成为世界上唯一一个芯片产业完全自给自足且掌控其供应链网络的国家。

By then, all U.S. chip companies will go bankrupt, and the U.S. high - tech economy will start to collapse.

到那时，美国所有的芯片公司都将破产，美国的高科技经济也将开始崩溃。

Edit: Drazen Zoric raised the point that the semiconductor was invented in the U.S. and for almost the entirety of its existence, advancements were made in the U.S.

编辑：德拉赞・佐里奇（Drazen Zoric）提出，半导体是在美国发明的，并且几乎在其整个发展历程中，相关技术进步也大多源自美国。

Zoric states.. “You are not aware that almost all semiconductor tech originated in US. That’s reason why US was able to forbid ASML sales to China. Not only EUV, but also DUV. Something similar probably will happen with RISC - V. While RISC - V is free to use, all initial investment was US - government and companies. To be seen what US will do here. About manufacturing. US is now also having EUV fabs and Intel will be first one to have Hi - NA EUV in Oregon followed by Ireland. TSMC has EUV fab in Arizona.”

佐里奇称：“你没意识到几乎所有半导体技术都起源于美国。这就是为什么美国能够禁止阿斯麦（ASML）向中国销售产品，不仅是极紫外光刻机（EUV），还有深紫外光刻机（DUV）。对于 RISC - V 可能也会发生类似的情况。虽然 RISC - V 可免费使用，但所有初始投资都来自美国政府和企业。美国在这方面会怎么做还有待观察。说到制造，美国现在也有极紫外光刻（EUV）工厂，英特尔将率先在俄勒冈州拥有高数值孔径极紫外光刻（Hi - NA EUV）设备，随后爱尔兰也会有。台积电在亚利桑那州设有极紫外光刻（EUV）工厂。”

All these are true. And you can argue all you want but this is totally irrelevant. So what!!!

这些都是事实。你可以随意争辩，但这完全无关紧要。那又怎样！！

The reality today is that China, forced to do so, has established its own ecosystem capable of producing legacy chips. China has developed its own proprietary technology and supply - chain ecosystem for independent R & D and manufacturing of advanced chips.

如今的现实是，中国被迫建立了自己的生态系统，能够生产传统芯片。中国已经开发出了自己的专有技术以及供应链生态系统，用于自主研发和制造先进芯片。

More importantly, at this juncture, many are warning that, with the current core technologies, Moore's Law may be approaching its physical limits. Miniaturization beyond 2nm may be reaching its optimal limit. So, will High - NA EUV be the next crucial advancing technology? Is it really urgently needed? The industry is at a crossroads, potentially leading to different development paths.

更重要的是，在当前这个节点，许多人也警告称，使用现有的核心技术，摩尔定律可能正在接近其物理极限。2 纳米以下的小型化可能正在接近其最优极限。那么，高数值孔径极紫外光刻（Hi - NA EUV）技术会是下一个关键的前进技术吗？真的迫切需要它吗？这个行业正处于一个十字路口，可能会走向不同的发展路径。

Meanwhile, Chiplet technology enables China to utilize legacy chips to achieve the performance of advanced chips. Moreover, SMIC can now produce 5 - nm chips without EUV equipment.

与此同时，小芯片（Chiplet）技术使中国能够利用传统芯片来实现先进芯片的性能。而且中芯国际现在无需极紫外光刻（EUV）设备就能生产 5 纳米芯片。

It seems that while catching up with chip technology, China can build its own ecosystem to produce all the chips needed to meet its industrial demands. Who knows, China might even pioneer its own proprietary technology completely different from the current silicon - based ones. They are also experimenting with manufacturing EUV in a radically different way from ASML, which would significantly shorten the catching - up time.

看起来中国在追赶芯片技术的同时，能够构建自身生态系统，生产满足其工业需求所需的所有芯片。谁又能知道呢，中国说不定能够开创出与当前基于硅的技术完全不同的自有专有技术。他们还在尝试以与阿斯麦截然不同的激进方式制造极紫外光刻机（EUV），这将大幅缩短追赶时间。

Actually, this is the opportune moment to do all these things.

实际上，现在正是做这些事情的最佳时机。

So, what if you can obtain High - NA EUV equipment in Oregon or even Ireland to produce the next - generation advanced chips? But then, who can you find as clients to produce chips for? Scale is of vital importance. If companies like Nvidia can't sell to China while Chinese companies can meet their needs by purchasing from domestic companies, how many companies like Nvidia can remain operational?

所以，就算你们在俄勒冈州甚至爱尔兰能够获得高数值孔径极紫外光刻（Hi - NA EUV）设备来生产下一代先进芯片又如何呢。但到时候，你们能找到哪些客户来为其生产芯片呢？规模至关重要。如果像英伟达这样的公司无法向中国销售产品，而中国公司却可以通过购买本国公司的产品满足需求，那像英伟达这样的公司还有多少能维持运营呢？

In the final analysis, this is simply stupid because it boils down to this: Biden wants the U.S. to maintain its leading position by trying to drive Chinese companies out of business, yet the operation of U.S. companies depends on Chinese business.

归根结底，这简直愚蠢至极，因为本质就是：拜登想让美国通过试图挤垮中国企业来维持领先地位，然而美国自身的企业经营却依赖中国的业务。

In the business field, the one who controls and deeply engages in the market will always be the ultimate winner.

在商业领域，掌控市场并深耕其中的一方，永远是最终的赢家。

Let me correct the premise of your question.

让我纠正一下你问题的前提。

First, there has been no such thing as "American chips" for at least the past 30 years.

第一，至少在过去30年里，根本不存在所谓“美国芯片”这回事。

Second, even if the US cuts off part of the chip supply, the impact on China would be minimal.

第二，就算美国切断部分芯片供应，对中国的影响也微乎其微。

Third, the US will eventually face a severe chip shortage, just like its automotive industry does now. Why?

第三，美国最终会像如今其汽车行业一样，面临严重的芯片短缺。为什么呢？

You know, chip production involves numerous raw materials, technologies, supply chains, and manufacturers. The US is just one of them, and so is China. When it comes to the chips we use in our daily lives, China's contribution cannot be underestimated.

要知道，芯片的生产涉及众多原材料、技术、供应链以及制造商，美国只是其中之一，中国也是。就目前我们日常使用的芯片而言，中国的贡献不容小觑。

The chips we know today are jointly manufactured by more than a dozen countries. China is not only a major contributor but also a much larger market. The US surely doesn't rank among the top five markets.

如今我们所熟知的芯片，是由十几个国家共同参与制造的，中国不仅是主要贡献者，更是一个规模大得多的市场。美国肯定排不进前五大市场。

So, here lies the complexity.

所以，复杂之处就在于此。

How can the US, through bribery, coercion, or threats, make these dozen or so countries and about 50 supply chain partners withdraw their businesses from China? The answer is that it's almost impossible.

美国要如何通过贿赂、胁迫或者威胁，让这十几个国家以及约50个供应链合作伙伴，撤离它们在中国的业务呢？答案是几乎不可能。

All companies are not only worried about immediately losing 40% - 50% of the global market, but they also know that China will completely replace them within a decade at most. So, which company would be willing to go bankrupt? The answer is none!

所有公司不仅担心会立刻失去40% - 50%的全球市场，而且它们清楚，中国最多在十年内就会完全取代它们。那么，哪家公司会甘愿破产呢？答案是没有！

So, my answer to you is that what the US has done and will do will surely cause more harm to US interests than to China's.

所以，我给你的答案是，美国的所作所为已经而且必将对美国自身利益造成的损害，比对中国的损害更大。

Despite all the US has tried, less than 10% of the countries and enterprises in the chip industry support it. So you see, the US has to continue to bribe, coerce, and threaten this 10% to make them dance to its tune.

尽管美国想尽办法，芯片行业中支持它的国家和企业还不到10%。所以你看，美国还得继续贿赂、胁迫并威胁这10%的对象，让它们跟着美国的指挥棒转。

China was willing to share a piece of bread with the US, but if the US doesn't appreciate it, then China will have to let the US go hungry.

中国本乐意与美国分享一块面包，但如果美国不领情，那中国就只能让美国挨饿了。

Most (about 90%) of the so - called "American chips" are produced in Taiwan region of China or other countries such as South Korea and Singapore.

大多数（约 90%）所谓的 “美国芯片” 是在中国台湾地区或韩国、新加坡等其他国家生产的。

Take the Dutch company ASML as an example. It is the world's largest manufacturer of lithography machines used to make microchips. ASML acquired a US company and, to obtain approval from the US government, agreed that any sale of its machines would require US permission. So, those "American chips" are produced in Asia, using machines sold by a Dutch company, and the technology used in these machines is derived from the technology originally developed in the US decades ago.

以荷兰公司阿斯麦（ASML）为例，它是全球最大的用于制造微芯片的光刻机制造商。阿斯麦收购了一家美国公司，为获得美国政府批准，同意其任何机器销售都需得到美国许可。所以，那些 “美国芯片” 是在亚洲生产的，使用的是一家荷兰公司销售的机器，而该机器所采用的技术，源自几十年前最初由美国开发的技术。

Therefore, demanding that ASML, Samsung, Foxconn, etc. stop selling lithography machines and chips to China would threaten the economies of a large number of US allies. Not to mention US companies like Apple and Tesla that produce products in China or use Chinese components.

因此，要求阿斯麦、三星、富士康等停止向中国销售光刻机和芯片，将威胁到美国一众盟友的经济。更不用说像苹果和特斯拉这样在中国生产产品或使用中国零部件的美国公司了。

Some of these companies and their governments are likely to simply say "screw you" and continue doing business with China, their largest customer. How do you plan to stop them: invade the Netherlands? Launch a nuclear attack on Seoul?

这些公司中的一些以及它们所属的政府，很可能会直接说 “去你的”，然后继续与它们最大的客户 —— 中国做生意。你打算怎么阻止它们呢：入侵荷兰？对首尔发动核攻击？

Secondly, apart from Taiwan region of China, the place with the largest number of ASML lithography machines is the Chinese mainland. How do you plan to force the Chinese mainland to stop using these machines?

其次，除中国台湾地区外，拥有阿斯麦光刻机数量最多的地方就是中国大陆。你打算如何迫使中国大陆停止使用这些机器呢？

Finally, China has invested tens of billions of dollars in researching and developing independent chip - making technologies that do not rely on ASML. Chinese companies such as SMIC and some other enterprises (note: Lam Research is actually a US company. There might be a mistake in the original text here) only lag behind the West by a few years.

最后，中国已投入数百亿美元用于研发不依赖阿斯麦的自主芯片制造技术。中芯国际以及泛林集团（Lam Research ，注：虽然名字相似，但泛林集团是美国公司，此处原文可能有误）等其他中国企业，与西方的差距仅有几年。

China is producing 7 - nanometer chips and is said to be about to start producing 5 - nanometer chips. The West is currently producing 3 - nanometer chips. (Nowadays, the "nanometer" parameter doesn't mean much. Basically, the smaller the number, the faster the chip. Currently, China lags two generations behind the latest cutting - edge chips, and soon it will only be one generation behind. China is catching up very fast.)

中国正在生产 7 纳米芯片，据说即将开始生产 5 纳米芯片。西方目前在生产 3 纳米芯片。（如今 “纳米” 这个参数的意义已不大。基本上，数字越小，芯片速度越快。中国目前比最新的尖端芯片落后两代，很快就会只落后一代。中国追赶的速度非常快。）